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Wednesday, 06 November 2013

Climate change and adaptation: the case of Nigerian agriculture

The Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) issued a Research Paper on "Climate change and adaptation: the case of Nigerian agriculture"which presents an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture, covering more than 80% of agricultural value added.
The paper reports that climate change turns to be unambiguously negative for Nigeria in the medium term with production losses, increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. The paper also offers a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigeria agriculture which considers  a mix of cheaper “soft measures” and more costly “hard” irrigation expansion.
The main result of the paper is that cost effectiveness of the whole package crucially depends on the possibility to implement adaptation exploiting low cost opportunities. In this case all climate change damages can be offset with a benefit cost ration larger than one in all the climate regimes. Expensive irrigation expansion should however be applied on a much more limited acreage compared with soft measures. If adaptation costs are those of the high end estimates, full adaptation ceases to be cost/effective. This points out the need of a careful planning and implementation of adaptation, irrespectively on the type, looking for measures apt to control its unit cost.
Political, trade and cooperation relations between the European Union (EU) and Nigeria are built on the 2000 Cotonou Agreement (ACP-EU Partnership Agreement), last revised in 2010. In 2009, they signed the "Nigeria-EU Joint Way Forward" political framework, which lay down detailed plans for intensifying dialogue and cooperation. As a result the EU and Nigeria now have regular political dialogues that cover a wide range of issues including human rights, trade and climate change.

Source: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)