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Wednesday, 20 January 2010

EPAs: Empirical evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa

Since early 2008 interim trade agreements between the EU and six regions of ACP countries (respectively sub-groups within the region) are in force. These agreements could be stepping stones towards full Economic Partnership Agreements between the EU and all ACP countries. This paper written as a background paper for the World Development Report 2009, estimates the welfare effects of the interim agreements for nine African countries: Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, and Uganda. The analysis is based on highly disaggregated data for trade and tariffs (HS six digit level) and follows a simple analytical model by Milner et al. (2006) to quantify the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Results indicate that Botswana, Cameroon, Mozambique, and Namibia will signicantly profit from the interim agreements, while the trade effects for Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda are close to zero.

Source: ACP-EU-Trade